The Atlantic is showing no signs of losing steam following Laura's wrath along the U.S. Gulf Coast last week, which has left hundreds of thousands without power in Louisiana into the new week. Now, forecasters are busy monitoring other areas of concern in the basin. One budding area of showers and thunderstorms moving westward over the Caribbean Sea has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression and strengthening into a named storm this week.
The brewing system is likely to threaten parts of Central America with heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf later this week and into this weekend.
This developing Caribbean system will be competing with an area of disturbed weather off the East Coast of the United States to become the next named system of the 2020 hurricane season. The next tropical storms to form will be given the names Nana and Omar.
Which system develops first will determine the name for the Caribbean system as the storms are named in alphabetical order. If either system becomes a tropical storm prior to Sept. 5, it would set a new early-season formation record for the letter "N." The same record for the "O" storm is Sept. 7. Both N and O storm records were set in the 2005 season with Nate forming on Sept. 5 and Ophelia forming on Sept. 7.
"In terms of development, there are significant amount of thunderstorms associated with the Caribbean feature, but the system still lacks a defined circulation around a center," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Over the next couple of days the system is forecast to begin to slowly spin around a center, and once that happens, a tropical depression will be born.
"While there is a remote chance for the system to become a hurricane due to the warm water and relatively low wind shear in the region, this system probably will not have enough time to ramp up to hurricane strength before reaching land in Central America later this week," Miller said.
"The greatest threat to lives and property in Central America will be from torrential rain that can unleash flash flooding and mudslides," Miller added.
Late this week and this weekend, countries at greatest risk for dangerous conditions related to the tropical system in the Caribbean include Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. However, interests in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the system's progress.
As the system moves westward, organizes and strengthens, seas will become agitated over the Caribbean, which means that conditions will become rough for small craft. Rough surf is likely along the south shores of the northern Caribbean islands as well as the north shores of South America. Seas and surf will build in the western part of the Caribbean Sea at midweek prior to the system's arrival in Central America.
Once the system organizes and a center develops, its track into Central America will become more clear.
"At this time it appears the current Caribbean system will not be a threat to the U.S. as a belt of high pressure that extends westward through the Gulf of Mexico will act as a roadblock and prevent the feature from morning northward," Miller said.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already generated 14 depressions, of which 13 have become tropical storms, four have strengthened into hurricanes, including one major hurricane. The 2020 season is on record pace that could rival the notorious 2005 season that gave birth to Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
Early this summer, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted a hyperactive peak hurricane season, which is now underway, and like the notorious 2005 season, Greek letters may be needed beyond the designated list of names for the 2020 season. AccuWeather meteorologists are calling for up to 24 tropical storms and up to 11 hurricanes this season.
Marco was the latest tropical system to set an early-season formation record for 2020. Marco formed on Aug. 20. Even though Marco brought some rain and wind to part of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and briefly reached hurricane status, it was quickly overshadowed by Laura, which prevailed after Marco's demise along the upper Gulf Coast. Laura struck southwestern Louisiana with devastating effects as a Category 4 hurricane early on Aug. 27. Thus far Laura is the only major hurricane for 2020.
Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura and Marco all set new records for their designated letters in 2020. That trend is likely to continue through most letters of the alphabet and perhaps Greek letters as well.