COLUMBUS, Ohio — Christmas is fast approaching, and the forecast is beginning to take shape. Around this time of year there is one question on everyone's mind, will we see a white Christmas?
If you're team "White Christmas," this year is looking different from the last few for several reasons.
The first reason is that we are officially back in an El Nino, which is the warmer half of the ENSO, or the El Nino Souther Oscillation.
El Nino occurs when the waters along the equator in the pacific ocean warm above average. This shifts the polar jet stream further to the north, limiting the cold and snow for the Midwest.
La Nina occurs when water temperatures along the equator in the pacific fall below average and results in cooler and wetter winters in the Midwest. The last El Nino occurred from 2016 to 2019 with a strong La Nina setting up and persisting until this fall.
Normally during El Nino years Columbus sees above average temperatures and below average snow fall, so the big picture is not in our favor.
Over the past 138 years (1884 to 2022) Columbus has seen 77 Christmas days with no snow on the ground, that's just over 55%. In that same time, the city has seen 23 Christmas days with a trace of snow and only 20 with more than a trace but less than half an inch of snow. That leaves 19 days with over half an inch of snow for Christmas Day.
That means that over 138 years, around 45% of Christmas days have seen some snow on the ground with 55% seeing none.
In the last 20 years, there have been eight Christmas days with a trace of snow or more and none of those days saw more than half an inch. So, even if we see snow, the odds of it being more than a light coating are low.
This year, Dec. 25 is looking warmer than normal. The average for Christmas Day in Columbus is a high of 36 degrees, a low of 24 degrees, 0.3 inches of snow and/or .11 inches of rain.
This Christmas, we will see high in the 50s followed by mid-week rain showers.
Weather resources